22 Jan Saskatchewan Party Leadership Race Poll
NEWS RELEASE: JANUARY 22, 2018
Between January 9 and 17, 2018, we conducted an online poll with 1,004 randomly selected Saskatchewan residents from our SaskWatch Research® online panel. Out of these 1,004 respondents, 72 report being a Saskatchewan Party member. To increase the accuracy of our results among Sask. Party members, we conducted additional surveys, targeting only Sask. Party members.
This resulted in a total of 104 Sask. Party members in our study. Note that in select cases numbers do not add precisely to 100% due to rounding.
Who Would Make the Best Premier?
When asked which of the five leadership candidates would make the best premier, a large portion of Saskatchewan residents are unsure (48%).
Ken Cheveldayoff emerges in the lead, but only 16% of Saskatchewan residents name him as the best choice. Alanna Koch follows at 9%, with Gord Wyant and Scott Moe each garnering 5% of Saskatchewan resident responses and Tina Beaudry-Mellor just behind at 4%. One in ten (12%) believe none of the candidates would make the best premier of Saskatchewan.
Of note, among the 104 Sask. Party members polled within our general public survey, the findings differ somewhat. Specifically, equal proportions believe Ms. Koch (22%) and Mr. Cheveldayoff (21%) would make the best premier. Mr. Moe (13%) and Mr. Wyant (12%) earn roughly equal support and Ms. Beaudry-Mellor trails behind at 3%.
A sizable proportion of Sask. Party members (27%) are unsure which candidate would fit the job best and the remaining 3% feel none of the candidates would be the best as premier.
Saskatchewan Residents (n=1,004)
Sask. Party Members (n=104)
Likelihood of Voting for the Sask. Party in the Next General Election Dependent on Leader
Residents were next asked how likely they would be to vote for the Sask. Party in the next general election if each of the candidates were premier. At this point in time, a large proportion state they are uncertain whether they would be more or less likely to vote for the Sask. Party regardless of who is selected as leader (roughly 50%).
However, a greater proportion say they are less likely to vote for the Sask. Party in the next general election regardless of who is leader of the party. This suggests that whoever becomes leader must prove themselves over the coming years to perform well in the next general election.
*Calculated by taking the % of much more and somewhat more likely minus % somewhat or much less likely (example: Mr. Cheveldayoff: 11% + 13% – 9% – 19% = -4)
Voter Intent – Sask. Party Members*
Of the 104 survey respondents who report being a Sask. Party member, voter intentions vary slightly from public opinion on who is believed to be the best premier. Out of the 104 Sask. Party members, 77 say they intend to vote (or have already voted) and have decided on their candidate selections.
In the first round of candidate selections, it appears a fair amount of vote splitting may take place. Specifically, Mr. Cheveldayoff and Ms. Koch are statistically tied with the most votes in our poll, yet Mr. Moe and Mr. Wyant also earn very similar vote counts to each other in the first round. Ms. Beaudry-Mellor trails notably behind. This means second choice candidate selection will likely be important in determining final voter outcomes.
Directionally, our poll suggests comparatively fewer Sask. Party members intend to vote for Mr. Cheveldayoff as their second choice, potentially limiting his impact in gaining momentum in each subsequent round of the voting process.
*Caution is advised in interpreting the above findings due to the small sample size and larger margins of errors. The estimated margin of error on “first choice” is ±11.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. As such, these findings should be considered directional in nature, and actual voter outcomes could differ notably.
A total of 1,004 randomly selected SaskWatch Research® panel members participated in the online research study between January 9th and 17th, 2018. Quotas were set by age, gender and region to match the general population of the province and as such the data did not need to be weighted. An additional 32 surveys were completed, targeting only Sask. Party members to boost the sample size to 104 for questions related to Sask. Party member voting intentions.
Since the research is conducted online, it is considered to be a non-probability proportion sample; therefore, margins of error are not applicable. However, had a probability sample been utilized, the margin of error would be estimated to be ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 for questions answered by all respondents (n=1,004). The margin of error on voter intentions among Sask. Party members would be estimated to be ±9.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
About SaskWatch Research
Insightrix began developing its SaskWatch Research online market research panel in October 2007, using high quality techniques including telephone recruitment and referrals from existing panel members. Presently, there are over 18,000 active panel members representing all regions of the province and distributions of the general population. Panel membership closely matches the 2016 Census, based on age, gender, household composition, household income and education. http://saskwatch.ca
Insightrix is a dynamic, Western Canadian, full-service market research company. It exists to serve businesses and government entities with insights-driven research solutions, and interpretive analysis through leading-edge tools and senior-level expertise across a broad range of industries. Insightrix is based in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada. For a PDF version of this release click here. For full details click here.