Insightrix Federal Election Vote Poll Prediction

Insightrix Successfully Predicts Popular Federal Election Vote

Insightrix Successfully Predicts Popular Federal Election Vote in Saskatchewan

October 20th, 2015

A comparison of the popular vote in Saskatchewan, from the Federal Election held yesterday, closely matches Insightrix Research’s predictions based on an independent online poll conducted October 6 to 8, 2015.

Nearly two weeks before the Federal Election, Insightrix predicted that the Conservatives would bring in 44% of the popular vote while the NDP would achieve 27%, the Liberals 24%, and the Green Party 4% of the vote. Based on popular vote figures published by Elections Canada this morning, the actual popular vote numbers line up very closely with the Insightrix Research poll predictions.

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The Insightrix poll also aligns very closely with the popular vote from the Federal Election in Saskatoon with a maximum of a three point variance for any one party.

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Direct comparisons between the poll and Election Day results in Regina cannot be made because the Regina – Qu’Appelle riding comprises a large rural area.

We at Insightrix are very pleased with the predictive nature of the poll. We credit the high accuracy of the results to the strength of our online panel, SaskWatch Research™. Of note, our panel has also predicted the 2011 General Provincial Election with a very high level of accuracy, aligned closely with results from the Regina P3 referendum regarding the wastewater treatment plant. Our panel also predicted the winners of the most recent mayoralty races in both Regina and Saskatoon.

Research Details
A total of 803 randomly selected SaskWatch Research™ panel members participated in the online research study from October 6 to 8, 2015. Quotas were set by age, gender, and region to match the general population of the province. Since the research is conducted online, it is considered to be a non-probability proportion sample and therefore, margins of error are not applicable.

About SaskWatch Research™
Insightrix began developing its SaskWatch Research™ online market research panel in October 2007, using high-quality techniques including telephone recruitment and referrals from existing panel members. Presently, there are over 15,500 active panel members representing all regions of the province and distributions of the general population. The panel membership closely matches the 2011 Census based on age, gender, household composition, household income, and education. For more information, please visit register.saskwatch.ca/.

About Insightrix
Founded in 2001, Insightrix Research Inc. is a full-service market research firm that helps clients develop, administer, and manage data collection and information strategies. From its office in Saskatoon, Insightrix offers a comprehensive range of research services.

For more information, please contact
Lang McGilp, Senior Research Executive
Insightrix Research Inc.
Tel: 306.657.5640 ext. 229
Cell: 306.290.9599
Email: lang.mcgilp@insightrix.com
Web: www.insightrix.com