saskatchewan election polling #SKpoli

Conservatives Continue to Lead in Saskatchewan among Decided Voters

Conservatives Continue to Lead in Saskatchewan among Decided Voters in Upcoming Federal Election

October 14th, 2015

A new independent Insightrix Research online poll finds some shifts in Saskatchewan “decided voter” intentions between August, 2015 and mid-October.

Presently, 44% of decided Saskatchewan voters state they intend to cast their ballot for the Conservative Party of Canada, up from 39% in a similar Insightrix poll conducted in August, while plans of voting for Canada’s NDP has fallen from 35% to 27% over the same time period. The Liberals have picked up support by three points since August, presently sitting at 24% while the Green Party of Canada holds relatively steady at 4%. The remaining 1% indicate they will vote for a different party.

Graph-1

Regionally, the Liberals have taken a commanding lead in Regina over the past two months, emerging as the frontrunner, when in August, they and the Conservatives were tied. In contrast, the Conservatives now lead in Saskatoon by a modest margin (36%, up from 32%), but are closely followed by the NDP which have sustained some losses in voter intentions since August (32%, down from 39%). Despite trailing the other two major parties, the Liberals have also made a small gain in Saskatoon since August (up four points to 27%).

Graph-2

Intentions of voting for the Conservatives have surged in the remaining regions of the province (presently 54% of decided voters, up from 43%), with the greatest gains noted in the southern and central parts of Saskatchewan, with a corresponding loss for the NDP.

Graph-3

By age, Conservative voting intentions have risen most among middle aged Saskatchewan voters (ages 35-54 years, presently 50%, up from 40% in August). Similarly, the Conservatives have gained ground among females these past two months with a current 41% intending to vote for the party, up from 34% in August.

For the NDP, greatest losses in voter support are among younger voters aged 18 to 34 (presently 28%, down from 40%) who have largely turned to support the Liberals.

Fully 93% of Saskatchewan residents say they intend to vote in the upcoming Federal Election on October 19th, 2015. Only 6% of those who intend to vote are currently unsure of the party for which they will vote. In the August poll, 10% were undecided.

Research Details

A total of 803 randomly selected SaskWatch Research™ panel members participated in the online research study from October 6th to 8th, 2015. The August poll included a random sample of 801 SaskWatch Research™ panel members who were surveyed from August 11th to 13th, 2015. In both studies, quotas were set by age, gender, and region to match the general population of the province. Since the research is conducted online, it is considered to be a non-probability proportion sample and therefore, margins of error are not applicable.

About SaskWatch Research™

Insightrix began developing its SaskWatch Research™ online market research panel in October 2007, using high-quality techniques including telephone recruitment and referrals from existing panel members. Presently, there are over 15,000 active panel members representing all regions of the province and distributions of the general population. The panel membership closely matches the 2011 Census based on age, gender, household composition, household income, and education. For more information, please visit http://saskwatch.ca.

About Insightrix

Founded in 2001, Insightrix Research Inc. is a full-service market research firm that helps clients develop, administer, and manage data collection and information strategies. From its office in Saskatoon, Insightrix offers a comprehensive range of research services.

For more information, please contact
Lang McGilp, Senior Research Executive
Insightrix Research Inc.
Telephone: 306-657-5640 ext. 229
Cell: 306-290-9599
Email: lang.mcgilp@insightrix.com